The ‘Country Studies’ programme set out to identify the vulnerability of the different natural and social systems in South African society to climate change and to suggest suitable adaptation measures.

Full reports can be obtained from the sub-directorate. For information, contact Shirley Moroka on 012 310 3436 or kmoroka@deat.gov.za.

The Country Studies Programme identified the health sector, maize production, plant and animal biodiversity, water resources and rangelands as the areas of highest vulnerability to climate change. Two key cross-sectoral adaptation options that link these various sectors are – the establishment of improved national disaster coordination and management, and the raising of awareness of the potential effects of climate change.

Global Climate Model (GCM) computer simulations were used to develop regional climate change scenarios and to assess the potential effects of a changed climate. The potential changes to the SA climate over the next 50 years included:

• A warming of between 1C and 3C
  
• Potential reduction of approximately 5-10% of current rainfall
  
• Increased daily maximum temperatures in summer and autumn in the western half of the country
  
• Increased incidents of drought and flood
  
• Enhanced temperature inversions exacerbating air pollution problems
  

The vulnerability of each sector to these proposed changes in climate is defined below:

Health
Malaria: In the absence of corrective health measures, the projected climate change scenarios for South Africa may result in an extension of the malaria prone areas. Due to the increasing length of summer, a greater number of people could also be exposed to the risk of malaria for longer periods of time. Modelling predicted that the area of the country potentially prone to malaria will more than double in 50 years, and that 7.8 million people will be at risk, with 5.2 million of these people not previously resident in malaria risk areas.

Schistosomiasis (Bilharzia): Modeling suggests that as temperature increases occur, a larger area of South Africa will contain conditions conducive to the survival of schistosooa – and thus a greater proportion of the population will be at risk of infection. With increases in unexpected weather phenomena (e.g.. flooding), the distribution of the snail host may increase and the potential for urinary schistosomiasis could exist in areas currently free of the disease. Community water supply and sanitation projects currently being undertaken by the Department of Water affairs and Forestry will contribute to the prevention of infection.

Water Resources
Even without climate change it is predicted that South Africa will utilize most of its surface water resources within a few decades. The most significant impacts of climate change on water resources are the potential changes in the intensity and seasonality of rainfall. While some regions may receive more surface water flow, water scarcity, increased demand for water and water quality deterioration are very likely to be problems in the future. Climate change may also alter the magnitude, timing and distribution of storms that produce flood events. The arid and semi-arid regions, which cover nearly half of South Africa, are particularly sensitive to changes in precipitation. Desertification, which is already a problem in South Africa, could be exacerbated as the climate changes. Adaptation options identified to limit the effect that climate change may have on water resources include strategic resource management issues, drought relief measures, design of infrastructure and communication.

Rangelands
Climate change scenarios predict a general acidification of rangelands. The predicted lower rainfall and higher air temperatures will affect fodder production and impact on the marginal costs of ranching. Over the savannah regions in the north east of the country, forage production may decrease by one-fifth, which would impact on the cattle-ranching industry by reducing the national cattle-herd by about 10%. Beef production would, however, not be affected to the same degree, as greater numbers of the beef herd are fattened in feed-lots before being slaughtered. Fire intensities are predicted to increase by about 20% due to the increase in grass fuel load. Climate change may also affect the frequency and spatial extent of livestock disease outbreaks, such as foot and mouth disease. An improved monitoring and forecasting system for fire hazards and droughts will assist and will be beneficial even without climate change occurring.

Agriculture/ Maize production
Maize production contributed to 71% of grain production during 1996. To meet the increasing food demand, agriculture has to expand by approximately 3% annually. Under the climate scenario that predicts a hotter drier climate, maize production will decrease by approximately 10-20% over the next 50 years, and speciality crops grown in specific environmentally favourable areas may also be at risk. An increase in pests and diseases would also have a detrimental effect on the agricultural sector, and invasive plants could possibly become a greater problem. Adaptation measures should mainly focus on changing agricultural management practices, such as more effective use of water resources, planting drought resistant crops, or changing the land use to grazing. To reduce the risk of famine, marginal production areas could be kept economically viable by planting drought resistant crops or changing land use to grazing.

Forestry
The South African industry is highly sensitive to climate change. Currently, only 1.5% of the country is suitable for tree crops and the forestry sector is affected by factors such as land availability, water demand and socio-economic conditions. General acidification, due to lower rainfall and higher air temperatures, will affect the optimal areas for the country’s major tree crop species and impact on the marginal costs associated with planting in sub-optimal areas. Shifts in the optimum tree growing areas could impact on the profitability of fixed capital investments such as saw mills and pulp mills. The decrease in production would also be detrimental to the planting of trees to serve as carbon sinks. More temperature tolerant cultivars within the current tree species could be selected, but it is more probably that more lucrative uses for the land, such as sub-tropical fruits, may compete for the land currently under tree plantations.

Biodiversity
The combined effect of climate change, increasing human population and increasing per capita consumption, will result in major changes to biodiversity. Climate change scenario modelling indicates a reduction of the area covered by the current biomes by between 38 and 55% by the year 2050. Of the 179 species of animal examined, 143 indicated range contractions and four were predicted to become extinct. Of concern is the predicted expansion of insect pests, such as the brown locust, to areas that were previously cooler.

The predicted rise in temperature would have an effect on the sea surface temperature and this would result in the migration of species residing along the coast. Studies have also indicated that there will be an increase in the occurrences of ‘red-tide’ on the west coast. Other results of climate change are predicted changes in sand inundation on the eastern coast and a predicted increase in storms.

The establishment of a biodiversity monitoring network would identify those species that will be impacted on by climate change and may assist in the identification of species that could serve as indicator species. Conservation planning is required to ensure that the effects of climate change are buffered.

Economy
In addition to economic impacts from the vulnerability noted in the sectors above, the South African economy is also vulnerable to the possible response measures implemented by Annex 1 countries, since the economy is highly dependent on income generated from the production, processing, export and consumption of coal. Conversely, export could increase to non-Annex 1 countries. Investigations have recently been initiated to evaluate the potential impact of response measures on the South African economy.

For more detailed information on the vulnerability of each of the above sectors of South African society, and options for adaptation – see the Country Studies Reports. Download:
South African Country Studies
Presentations from DEAT Workshop on Vulnerability and Adaptation, October 2003

Current Action
The role of DEAT in terms of V&A, is to raise awareness of the issues across government and to encourage and facilitate the development of appropriate policies and action by other departments and spheres of government. To this end, a workshop was held for national government departments and agencies in October 2003 – to provide government with the most up-to-date information on vulnerability. Proceedings of the workshop can be obtained from the department on CD. Please contact Shirley Moroka on 012 310 3436 or kmoroka@deat.gov.za for details.

A National Response Strategy has also been approved and is available here for downloading (download here). Following this strategy, the next step is for DEAT to provide guidance to other government departments on how they can develop their own adaptation strategies and action plans.