1. INTRODUCTION
In 1997, as reported to the Executive Committee (98/01/14),
that the derived population figure was 3 506 383 that included formal (2 866 905) and
informal (639 478), population for the year 1995. This has, however, changed due to the
results received from the 1996 Census, as detailed below.2. BACKGROUND
The population of South Africa is estimated to have grown from
40,58 million in October 1996 to 42,13 million in mid 1998 given the Census figures as the
base population, and the assumptions made in the estimation of fertility and mortality.
The exponential growth rates inferred from the population projected through
cohort-component method, 1991 - 1998 for Gauteng are:
Table 1.
Population Growth Rate
| Gender |
Exponential Growth Rate:
1991-1998 |
| Males |
0.021956 |
| Females |
0.021826 |
The population of Gauteng is estimated at 7 348 423 people,
(18% of the total population - 40,5 million people) in the results from the 1996 Census.
The gender distribution is 51% (3 750 845) males and 49% (3 597 578) females.
3. POPULATION SIZE FOR GREATER JOHANNESBURG
The Census of 1996 has recently been received. The
formal population count for the Greater Johannesburg based on the Census 1996, received is
2 521 353 people, which is 985 thousand people short of the estimated figures in
1995. The attached maps show the population distribution and the population density based
on the 1996 Census information.
Table 2.
The population distribution per MLC in 95 and 96:
Metropolitan Areas |
Census Population
1996 |
Percentage Distribution of
Census 1996 |
| Eastern MLC |
487 835 |
19 % |
| Northern MLC |
507 810 |
20 % |
| Southern MLC |
1 102 619 |
44 % |
| Western MLC |
423 089 |
17 % |
| GJMC |
2 521 353 |
100% |
Source: GJMC, Planning Information Services, 1997 and
Census 1996
The population figure based on the 1996 Census for Greater
Johannesburg Area, differs (Table 2) from the figure previously reported, (The Compilation
of a Population Database for the Greater Johannesburg Metropolitan Area, Dated:
1998/01/27) population figure by 28% less people as previously estimated.
The preliminary report for the Census 1996, (37,9 million:
Stats SA ) was 10% lower than the estimate figure for the year 1996 (42,1 million -
Source: Central Statistical Services). After the adjustments for under counting has been
made, the final population figure for the 1996 Census was published at 40,5 million
people. This figure is 7.9% less than the estimation was for the population figure in
1996.
The reasons for this change in population size of Greater
Johannesburg for 1995 and the population size for 1996 might be summed up as follows -
- The information for 1995 was built on assumptions, using the
1991 Census as an information base. There are various sensitive assumptions upon which
such a model was built. For example, assumptions were made regarding fertility and
mortality rates, and net migration, which have proved to be wrong when compared to the
reality of the situation. In South Africa, the accepted fertility rates in the 1980's were
found to be too high on the basis of a Demographic Health Survey conducted between 1987
and 1989, and they were already adjusted downwards for the 1991 model. The CSS hypotheses,
on the basis of other more recent evidence and a newer model that the fertility rates
applied in the 1991 model and subsequent projections were still too high.
- The information for the Census in 1996 was checked by three
other methods to check the new estimates.
- First, the CSS turned to the fieldwork administrative
records that were kept by the controllers during the actual count.
- Secondly, the CSS asked a demographer from the CSS working
independently to build a demographic model to project the size of the population in 1996.
The data of the CSS's 1995 October household survey (OHS) was used for the fertility
estimates and the 1970 population census for the baseline data. A lower fertility rate was
discovered than the one, which was used for adjustment of the 1991 census.
- Thirdly, the CSS examined the age distribution by gender of
the South African population, using the responses in the 1996 post-enumeration survey
(PES).
Table 3 shows the total Census estimated population for
1997 - 1999 for the Greater Johannesburg Area, based on the Census 1996 formal population
estimation (2 521 353), with the male and female compilation.
Table 3.
Estimated Greater
Johannesburg Metropolitan Area Population
Gender |
Population Census 1996 |
Estimated Population
Census 1999 |
Estimated Population
Census 2000 |
Estimated Population
Census 2005 |
| Male |
1 260 054 |
1 344 887 |
1 374 415 |
1 532 071 |
| Female |
1 261 299 |
1 345 702 |
1 375 073 |
1 531 830 |
| Total |
2 521 353 |
2 690 589 |
2 749 488 |
3 063 901 |
Note: The calculation was based on the population
exponential growth rate for Gauteng as reported by the Stats SA (Census 1996)
4. CENSUS 1996 DATABASE AND SOFTWARE
One license has been bought from Statistics South Africa,
the Greater Johannesburg Metropolitan Council, which gives the GJMC access to all the
community profile information and data on a Metropolitan, Local Metropolitan, place name
and Enumerator Area level for Greater Johannesburg and surrounding areas (Gauteng). The
information package bought, allows the user access to a high speed, easy to use database
with the ability of displaying the selected data and information in a map.
Approximately 30 tables have been selected, developed into
graphs and tables and printed for everyday use from the database and is part of
sub-cluster's initiative to >serve information= and support decision-making.
5. FINANCIAL AND LEGAL IMPLICATIONS
The Greater Johannesburg Metropolitan Council (GJMC) have
signed a copyright license agreement (not for profit) with Stats South Africa which allow
the GJMC to compile data tables and spreadsheets from the single user data base. The
tables compiled can then be widely used to the benefit of the GJMC.
6. SUMMARY
The Census information has been added to a Decision Support
Information Intranet Web at: http://168.89.33.4 and is accessible to all councillors and
officials. Maps (attached) supporting this information on hard copy and is available
digitally for the intra- and internet.
7. SUPPORTING INFORMATION |
