Outcomes

It is too soon to tell what effect poverty alleviation will have on the natural environment. The greater environmental awareness and accent on mitigation of negative development impacts on the natural environment will benefit the natural environment although the additional cost to developers may have a negative impact on employment and therefore on poverty reduction.

The youthfulness of the South African population is cause for concern. About 44% of the population is younger than 20 years, so unless the fertility rate falls considerably, the population will continue to grow for many years. (South African Institute for Race Relations, 1998)

Projections of the growth of the South African population are currently somewhat impeded by the lack of reliable information on the current prevalence of HIV/AIDS , but there can be little doubt that the epidemic will have an impact. The Population Reference Bureau in Washington DC has reduced its previous estimate of the South African population in 2010 by 11.8 million people. Other estimates are that 6 million people will be infected by 2010 (Southern Life Risk Management Consultancy) (South African Institute for Race Relations, 1998). As HIV/AIDS will predominantly affect the economically active part of the population, the disease could have a major effect on the economy. There are also indications that HIV/AIDS will impact on projected life expectancy and a decrease to 40 years by the year 2010 is a possibility (South African Institute for Race Relations, 1998)

The Development Bank of Southern Africa presents two possible scenarios for projections of infant mortality rates. The first predicts a rapid decrease in infant mortality rates with the proviso that quality of life would increase. The second scenario is based on the assumption that living conditions would not improve, and projects a drop of only 24% in the infant mortality rate for the next 30 years (Development Bank of Southern Africa, 1998). A drop in infant mortality may be accompanied by a drop in fertility rates, as the perception that more children are surviving can result in larger gaps between children, and a reduction in the total number of children per woman. This will then contribute to a decline in the population growth rate.

Even with a stable population figure, declining household size means that the number of households will rise. In South Africa, with its growing population, the number of households will increase even faster. As each household has certain basic needs, irrespective of the number of people it consists of, the trend towards smaller households implies a bigger impact on the environment. Every household requires infrastructure in the form of housing and provision for transport in the form of roads and streets, basic services such as water, sanitation, waste removal and electricity as well as food and clothing. Smaller but more households therefore means an increased direct impact on environmental resources such as land for housing development and waste disposal, water and energy, as well as an increased indirect impact through building material and consumer goods such as furniture and modern conveniences.

The demand for land for residential purposes will remain high for a long time while the delivery processes are improving. Land invasions and informal settlement will continue for some time, and it can be expected that environmental degradation will occur as a result of lack of services in these areas. Formal development in environmentally sensitive areas and lack of strategic planning for development will also contribute to further environmental degradation.

There is a lack of institutional capacity at all levels of government to deal with the demands of poverty alleviation and other administrative functions including environmental control. The national budget is also not large enough to meet the needs of the growing population in the short term. The imperative for affirmative action has meant that experienced people have been lost. The rate at which poverty, and therefore its effect on the environment, will be overcome will be determined by the speed with which institutional capacity can be improved and budgetary constraints overcome.

>     Social Environment: Linkages

There is also information about the Social Environment in the following reports:
Metropolitan reports:
	Cape Metropolitan Council (1998 edition)		Durban Pilot Study
	Greater Johannesburg Metropolitan Council (1999 edition)		Greater Pretoria Metropolitan Council (1999 edition)